The impact of novel coronavirus pneumonia on China’s foreign trade

The impact of novel coronavirus pneumonia on China’s foreign trade
（1） In the short term, the epidemic has a certain negative impact on export trade
In terms of export structure, China’s main export products are industrial products, accounting for 94%. As the epidemic spread to all parts of the country during the Spring Festival, affected by it, the resumption of work of local industrial enterprises during the Spring Festival was delayed, the supporting industries such as transportation, logistics and warehousing were limited, and the inspection and quarantine work was more strict. These factors will reduce the production efficiency of export enterprises and increase transaction costs and risks in the short term.
From the perspective of the return of enterprise labor force, the impact of the epidemic appeared after the Spring Festival, which seriously affected the normal flow of personnel. All provinces in China formulate corresponding personnel flow control measures according to the development of local epidemic situation. Among the provinces with more than 500 confirmed cases, except Hubei, which is the most serious epidemic, It includes Guangdong (the proportion of exports in China in 2019 is 28.8%, the same later), Zhejiang (13.6%) and Jiangsu (16.1%) and other major foreign trade provinces, as well as Sichuan, Anhui, Henan and other major labor export provinces. The superposition of the two factors will make it more difficult for China’s export enterprises to resume work. The recovery of enterprise production capacity depends not only on the local epidemic control, but also on the epidemic response measures and effects of other provinces. According to the overall migration trend of the country during the Spring Festival transportation provided by Baidu map, the same as 20 Compared with the situation of spring transportation in 19 years, the return of personnel in the early stage of spring transportation in 2020 was not significantly affected by the epidemic, while the epidemic in the late stage of spring transportation had a great impact on the return of personnel, as shown in Figure 1.
From the perspective of importing countries, In January 31, 2020, novel coronavirus pneumonia was declared by WHO (WHO) to constitute an international public health emergency. After (pheic), although who does not recommend the adoption of travel or trade restriction measures, some contracting parties still implement temporary controls on China’s specific categories of commodity exports. Most of the restricted products are agricultural products, which has a limited impact on China’s overall exports in the short term. However, with the continuation of the epidemic, the number of countries subject to trade restrictions may increase, and the scope and scope of temporary measures are limited Efforts may also be strengthened.
From the perspective of shipping logistics, the impact of the epidemic on exports has emerged. Calculated by volume, 80% of the global cargo trade is transported by sea. The change of marine shipping business can reflect the impact of the epidemic on trade in real time. With the continuation of the epidemic, Australia, Singapore and other countries have tightened the regulations on berthing. Maersk, Mediterranean Shipping and other international shipping company groups have said that they have reduced the number of ships on some routes from mainland China and Hong Kong. The average charter price in the Pacific region has fallen to the lowest level in the last three years in the first week of February 2020, as shown in Figure 2. The index reflects the impact of the epidemic on export trade in real time from the perspective of shipping market.
（2） The long-term impact of the epidemic on exports is limited
The degree of impact on export trade mainly depends on the duration and scope of the epidemic. Although the epidemic has a certain impact on China’s export trade in the short term, its impact is phased and temporary.
From the demand side, external demand is generally stable, and the global economy has bottomed out and rebounded. On February 19, the IMF said that at present, the global economic development has shown a certain stability, and the relevant risks have weakened. It is expected that the global economic growth this year will be 0.4 percentage points higher than that in 2019, reaching 3.3%. According to the data released by Markit on February 3, the final value of the global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index PMI in January was 50.4, slightly higher than the previous value of 50.0, that is, slightly higher than the ups and downs watershed of 50.0, a nine month high. The growth rate of output and new orders accelerated, and employment and international trade also tended to stabilize.
From the supply side, domestic production will gradually recover. Novel coronavirus pneumonia has been increasing its adverse impact on export trade. China has stepped up its anti cyclical adjustment efforts and financial and financial support. Various localities and departments have introduced measures to increase support for related enterprises. The problem of enterprises returning to work is being gradually solved. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Commerce, the overall progress of foreign trade enterprises’ resumption of work and production has been accelerating recently, especially the leading role of major foreign trade provinces. Among them, the resumption rate of key foreign trade enterprises in Zhejiang, Shandong and other provinces is about 70%, and the resumption progress of major foreign trade provinces such as Guangdong and Jiangsu is also fast. The progress of the resumption of foreign trade enterprises nationwide is in line with expectations. With the normal production of foreign trade enterprises, the large-scale recovery of logistics and transportation, the gradual recovery of industrial chain supply, and the foreign trade situation will gradually improve.
From the perspective of global supply chain, China still plays an irreplaceable role. China is the world’s largest exporter, with the world’s most complete manufacturing industrial chain cluster. It is in the middle link of the global industrial chain and in the key position in the upstream of the global production division system. The short-term impact of the epidemic may boost the transfer of some production capacity in some fields, but it will not change China’s position in the global supply chain. China’s competitive advantage in foreign trade still exists objectively.